The FIFA World Cup is finally back after four years, and the United States will be looking to make a strong impression on home soil as they welcome Paraguay to Los Angeles.
Having beaten Paraguay 3-0 in the inaugural edition in 1930, the USA would lose to Paraguay in 2007 and 2011 before avenging themselves with a 1-0 win in the 2016 Copa América. They’ve since beaten them 1-0 and 2-1 – the last of which came in November – and they’ll be looking to make it four wins on the bounce as they take on La Albirroja.
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Why This Match Points to a Low‑Scoring Affair
While the United States will be liking their chances of kicking off their group stage with a victory, they’re well aware that it won’t be an easy task. Paraguay has returned to the world’s biggest tournament after 16 years, thanks to a stalwart backline, conceding fewer than two goals in 10 of their last 12 World Cup qualifiers.
After a humiliating 2024 Copa América which saw them lose all three matches, conceding 10 goals and scoring just 3, Paraguay has managed to tighten things up in defense. They kept 7 clean sheets in their final 12 qualifiers, including wins over World Cup participants Ecuador (twice), Uruguay (twice), and Brazil, and they also beat reigning champions Argentina.
Narrow USA Victory on the Cards
The smart money is on this being a fairly low-scoring fixture. Although team USA is chasing a victory at SoFi Stadium, they will know that a defeat will put them in a perilous position ahead of their final two group stage matches vs. Australia and Türkiye.
Paraguay’s discipline will keep the margin slim – after all, 17 of their last 19 matches have been decided by one goal or fewer, and each of their last four encounters with the Stars and Stripes have been decided by one goal. If you’re looking for a scoreline-based bet, go with Under 2.5 goals as well as Both Teams to Score: No. And if you’re looking for a wild card that could deliver an even better payout, the US to win 1-0 isn’t a bad option either.
Folarin Balogun’s Red‑Hot Form
For a match that will likely be a low-scoring grudge match, it might seem like an unwise choice to go with an Anytime Goalscorer. However, it is impossible to ignore Folarin Balogun’s red-hot form.
Unlike attacking partner Christian Pulisic, who is mired in the worst scoring form of his professional career, Balogun is heating up. He spurred Monaco to Champions League qualification with 19 goals in 43 appearances – 11 of those coming after Valentine’s Day – and he has emerged as the USMNT’s starting striker ahead of Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright. Moreover, he already has experience in a major tournament, having scored in the first two Copa América 2024 matches vs. Bolivia and Panama.
Can Balogun Deliver Again for the USMNT?
Balogun has proven his mettle against several top sides this season, bagging four goal contributions in his last two matches vs. Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain, and when the U.S. met Paraguay in November, it was Balogun who scored the winning goal. After kicking off his World Cup journey with the winning goal in the USA’s friendly win against Senegal, Balogun will be looking to build on his momentum and lead the U.S. to glory this summer.
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