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Last year, the Seattle Seahawks began the 2025 season as approximately +6000 underdogs to win Super Bowl LX. They ultimately closed as +350 favorites before winning it all over the New England Patriots, 29-13. They finished tied for the best regular-season record against the spread (ATS) at 12-5 and, after the Super Bowl, finished as the clear top wager with a 15-5 ATS record. It’s proof that any given Sunday, an underdog can rise to the top of America’s hottest sport.
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We went 2-0 last week with our locks, and we are looking to stay hot this week. The Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both came through for us, even though Minnesota made us sweat it out after getting up on the Eagles early. Either way, though, a win is a win. This week, we are looking to keep it rolling, and we are going to stick with some of the elite QBs in the NFL. Let’s get into it.
- Cincinnati Bengals +2.5
- Buffalo Bills -1
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Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 over the Baltimore Ravens
I’m sure that this is jarring to see at first. The Bengals have looked average at best and have had both of their star wide receivers sit for “injuries” at the beginning of the year. They have losses on the year to the Chiefs, Commanders, and Patriots. Last week was their first win of the year, and it was against the Carolina Panthers. Not exactly an impressive resume. The Ravens are coming off a blowout victory on national television over a very good Buffalo Bills team. Also, the week before that they beat a tough Dallas Cowboys team on the road.
So, doesn’t look like on the surface that this pick makes a ton of sense. However, I think they’re offense is finally getting all their pieces back on the field playing together, and they are getting to the point where these games are must-wins or their season is going to be lost. The Bengals are also getting to the point where they may be slightly underrated. They still have the 12th best total DVOA in the NFL. They also still have Joe Burrow under center. They are also at home. Divisional games are always wonky and weird stuff happens all the time. I like the under in this game as well. I will take Joe Burrow at home in a low-scoring, close one.
Buffalo Bills -1 over the Houston Texans
This is an interesting game. If you were able to get to this game early in the week, the Bills were actually 1.5 points underdogs to the Texans, and the line has moved 2.5 points since. As mentioned earlier, the Bills are coming off a game against the Ravens where they got absolutely steamrolled on national TV. It was their first loss of the year and certainly not a great performance to be seared into your brain when trying to pull the trigger on them this week. The Texans rebounded from their disaster against the Vikings with a close win against their divisional rival, the Jaguars, last week. They are likely one of the best teams in the AFC, and this game could even end up being a preview of a playoff matchup.
This game basically comes down to me thinking Josh Allen is the second-best player in football and will want to rebound in a big way after their performance against the Ravens. This game is also important for the Bills as far as seeding will be concerned down the road. I don’t love that it is at Houston, but everything can’t be perfect. Give me Josh Allen and the Bills to get a rebound victory in Houston.