Well, last week couldn’t have gone any worse. We had the Bills -1 and the Bengals +2.5. Both teams looked like they had a really good chance to win until they both squandered golden opportunities due to questionable coaching decisions.
Let’s start with the Bills.
Let’s start with the Bills. Josh Allen was a shell of his usual self, looking more like a rookie than a franchise QB. Seven straight incompletions? Ouch. Despite this, the Bills managed to tie the game and had a chance to win. Backed into their endzone, the Bills decided to throw three straight passes, take no time off the clock, and punt it back to the Texans. All the Texans had to do was complete a 5-yard dump-off, call a timeout, and kick a game-winning FG – Brutal.
Now, onto the Bengals. They battled the Ravens into overtime and had moments of brilliance, especially with Burrow connecting with Chase and Higgins, looking great on offense. They benefited from a late and lucky turnover by the Ravens where Lamar Jackson wasn’t ready for the snap, and it squeaked by him. The Bengals recovered in FG range, however, instead of trying to gain more yards through the air, where they dominated all day, and giving them a shorter FG, they ran the ball three straight times for no yards. They then attempted the FG, and the holder muffed the snap, and the kick went wide left. Next play, Derrick Henry breaks off a long run down inside the 10 and Justin Tucker trots out on first down to ice the game in OT. Talk about brutal.
The NFL is hard. Both teams had the talent to win, but poor decision-making and execution cost them dearly. Next time, let’s hope for smarter play-calling and better execution.
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We are back for week 6 though. Let’s get it.
Detroit Lions -3 over Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys narrowly escaped the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. They will not be so lucky this week against the Detroit Lions. This game is really simple to me. The Lions have a massive advantage in the trenches. According the ESPN’s run block win rate, the Detroit Lions rank 3rd in the NFL. Conversely, the Cowboys rank 30th in run-stop win rate. The Cowboys are also banged up along their defensive front. This does not bode well for them. Offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, loves himself a good run game and will feed David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs all game if he can. I just don’t see the Cowboys being able to stop them. Lions win comfortably.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 over Indianapolis Colts
Unfortunately, the Colts are dealing with several injuries to some of their top offensive players.
Michael Pittman was just placed on IR, Jonathan Taylor is going to miss another week, and Anthony Richardson’s status is still up in the air this week. I actually like the Colts chances better if Joe Flacco starts for them. However, I don’t think the Colts will start Flacco if Richardson is healthy. Putting your money behind Will Levis or Mason Rudolph seems scary, but the Colts’ defense is not good. They rank 21st in defensive DVOA and 27th in pass rush win rate. So, they likely won’t even be able to put pressure on Levis or Rudolph for the Titans. I expect the Titans to rely heavily on their run game and their defense. Titans defense continues to be a tough group and are top 10 in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Give me Tony Pollard and the defense in a close one.
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