49ers’ Up-and-Down Season Continues
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have been trading wins and losses since starting the season 3-0 and now sit at 6-4 and outside of the playoff picture in the NFC.
Playoff Outlook and Upcoming Schedule
Good news for Shanahan and Co. is that they are still 6-2 in the NFC and 3-1 in the NFC West, so it gives them a leg up in any Wild-Card tiebreakers. The 49ers’ schedule also gets pretty light in the next two months and should put them right in the thick of playoff contention heading into January.
Week’s Matchup Preview and Betting Line
Without letting the focus get too far ahead, the 49ers still have a tough divisional matchup against the Cardinals in Glendale. According to Bovada, the 49ers are favored by three points and the over/under is set to 48.0 points. The sportsbook is expecting the 49ers to win by a score of about 26-23.
I believe the 49ers will rebound from last week’s loss against the Rams and continue their streak of avoiding two losses (and two wins) in a row. Here are some keys to the game.
Health, Health and All About Health
When it’s this late into the season, the injury report often plays a big role in the outcome of the game and it becomes a battle of attrition on both sides. This week’s Wednesday practice injury report was the shortest it’s been for the 49ers since Week 1. Everyone participated in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, including quarterback Brock Purdy and wideout Ricky Pearsall.
The pending return of both players should help elevate their offense to the next level. Defensively, they should get rookie Alfred Collins back, which will help improve their run defense after getting gashed by the Rams last week.
On the other sideline, the Cardinals are reeling with injuries. They are already without starting quarterback Kyler Murray and will be without both starting wide receivers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones. Harrison Jr. had surgery for appendicitis and Jones tore his Achilles last week. Jonathan Gannon’s defense also might be down a few starters as well.
The edge for healthy bodies certainly goes to the 49ers – despite the fact that they haven’t yet had their bye week.
Kyle Shanahan Will Attack Cardinals’ Middling Run Defense
The 49ers’ offense usually has success, but if they are matched up against a defense that can’t successfully stop the run, they tend to dominate.
Gannon’s defense has struggled to slow down opposing running backs this season. They’re allowing 4.33 yards per carry, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Their EPA per rush allowed ranks 11th in the NFL.
In their first matchup this season, the 49ers only carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards, but I think their rushing attack has improved schematically since Week 3 and their blocking on the outside has also gotten better.
Brian Robinson Jr. has also been a serious factor in the run game the last few games and I expect Shanahan to lean on the former Commander in the backfield.
Can the 49ers Defense Force Pressure Against Jacoby Brissett?
The 49ers’ youth-laden defense is not going to magically turn into a Top-10 unit in the back half of this season. They’re going to hopefully take small steps forward each week, but defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is going to have to creatively find ways to create pass rush against Cardinals’ starter Jacoby Brissett.
San Francisco should have all their defensive linemen (outside of Mykel Williams and Nick Bosa) on the field come Sunday and they can hopefully create some havoc for Brissett.
Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford shredded Robert Saleh’s unit last weekend, but they’ve been playing exceptional, MVP-level football. I don’t think this version of the Cardinals has that kind of firepower.
I think the 49ers’ offense will surge with the return of Purdy and Pearsall, while the defense will make just enough stops to help guide the 49ers to another divisional win.
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