The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is about to kick off, and through a crowded bar you hear these fateful words:
“Should we take the over on QB rushing yards?”
You spot them – men of taste. They understand the intrinsic beauty of seeing a quarterback, coveted for his throwing power, resort to the grittiness of the ground game to pick up just a few yards.
It’s one of my favorite bets, but it isn’t for everyone. Let’s look at the pros and cons and evaluate whether this is a bet for you.
View the latest NFL odds at Bovada
Why You Should Bet the QB Rushing Yards Over
1. It Can Hit in One Play
This bet has excellent one-shot potential. A breakout scramble can cover the bet on the very first drive. Alternatively, even late in the game when things look grim, your luck could change with a single bootleg.
The QB rushing yards over is always alive.
2. It Hedges Against an Unproductive Offense
Did you take the total points over, the passing yards over, and the total passing TDs over, only for the game to turn into a defensive master class? Or maybe you took prop bets for skill players who aren’t even sniffing the ball.
Quarterback rushing yards stay alive even in dismal offensive environments. When the offense runs dry, teams will try to pick up yards by any means necessary- and that means even a pocket passer might get more mobile than usual.
Additional Note: Sacks do not count as negative rushing yards.
(Keep the QB pressure coming.)
3. Maximum Entertainment Value
Who else will be jumping off their barstool on a 3rd-and-long scramble that doesn’t even reach the sticks?
Who else will get a sparkle in their eye when the least agile guy on the field steps through the pocket and takes off up the middle for a three-yard gain?
Every time a passing play breaks down, this bet gains life. In my opinion, it’s one of the most fun and simple bets to root for.
Why You Shouldn’t Bet the QB Rushing Yards Over
1. You Suspect a Blowout
If a game turns into a blowout, the QB rushing yards over can let you down in a very frustrating way.
If your QB’s team is ahead, they may not want to risk losing a crucial piece of the offense for a few meaningless yards. If your QB’s team is trailing by a lot, a couple of rushing yards won’t move the needle, making him more likely to force throws downfield instead of using his legs.
Either way, a blowout is bad news for this bet.
2. Injury Risk
Most QBs aren’t exactly natural ball carriers. That’s part of why we admire a good QB run in the first place.
The very thing we’re rooting for puts them in danger, and one late slide or awkward hit can send a quarterback straight into the concussion protocol- completely nuking the bet. If you suspect your QB is made of glass, stay away.
3. Bad Beat Potential
Beware the victory formation.
In the NFL, QB kneels count as negative rushing yards. If your QB’s team is trying to run out the clock, three kneels in a row could result in one of the most deflating beats of your life.
If you can’t handle a painful garbage-time loss, this bet is not for you.
A Look at Last Week’s Results
Let’s take a look at last week’s quarterbacks and whether they hit their rushing overs.
QBs Who Hit
- Brock Purdy — Line: 16.5 | Actual: 24
- Drake Maye — Line: 26.5 | Actual: 66
QBs Who Didn’t
- C.J. Stroud — Line: 12.5 | Actual: 0
- Caleb Williams — Line: 21.5 | Actual: 20
- Matthew Stafford — Line: 0.5 | Actual: 0
QBs on a Bye
- Sam Darnold
- Bo Nix
Who I’m Taking This Week
Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Rushing Yards
It’s no secret that the 37-year-old Rams QB isn’t as spry as he once was—but I believe that’s something the books factored in when setting his line at a whopping (checks notes) 0.5 rushing yards against the Bears on Sunday night.
For those brave enough to ride, it’s only going to take one scramble, one broken play, or one goal-line tush-push to get us over the hump.
If you’re looking for an analytical dissection of why I think it’s possible, in full transparency, I don’t have one. But, if you’re a fan of chaos and entertainment value, I can guarantee this one will have you locked in all night.
Conclusion
Because this bet is oriented towards extracting maximum entertainment value, I’m not going to advise anyone to bet more than they can afford to comfortably lose.
As a personal note, I will be placing a bet size equivalent to a pitcher of beer, just enough to keep the party going if it hits. Good luck with all your futures, props, and parlays this weekend!
*Any tips, predictions, or strategies published are entirely the opinion of the author, and are not guaranteed to be correct or result in financial gain. The Author is not an employee of Bovada.
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