The start of the NFL playoffs comes with mixed emotions. It marks the end of another regular season. No more fantasy games. No more best ball. Small slates in DFS. BUT the NFL playoffs and Super Wild Card Weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the year.
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This year we have some very enticing matchups. The Commanders against the Bucs on paper looks like it could be the highest scoring games of the weekend. Both teams provide explosive playmakers and QBs looking to prove themselves. The Vikings and the Rams are a very interesting matchup. The Rams chose to rest their starters in week 18 instead of playing for the three seed and the right to not play the winner of the week 18 Lions and Vikings matchup.
I am also super excited to see how MVP candidates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson perform. Jackson has had his playoff issues and until he proves otherwise that narrative isn’t going away. Allen has played well in the playoffs, but thus far, not well enough to get his team to the Super Bowl.
The best part about all these matchups? There is money to be won. Let’s take a look.
Bo Nix Over 23.5 rushing yards
This is going to be a tough matchup for the Broncos. They have Bills have been on a roll all season offensively, but there defense has struggled at times. Sean Payton is an experienced coach and will find ways to put his rookie QB in the best position to succeed. I expect some designed runs, boots and play-actions to try and get some easy yards for Nix and the offense. In the last four games Nix has 7, 7, 3 and 8 carries. That corresponded with 47, 31, 25, and 23 yards. On the season he has eclipsed that rushing total over half of his games. In this playoffs you tend to see QBs use their legs even more- think Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar. They are going to be more apt to run than in the regular season. Nix is an athletic guy and his strength is ability to use his legs. I expect a lot of that against Buffalo.
Chargers -1.5 over the Texans
This is a matchup of two very strong defenses. On the year they are tied for 5th on EPA per play against on the defensive side of the ball. If you take a look at just the last 4 weeks, the Chargers are only slightly ahead. They are both extremely well coached, can rush the passer and have played consistently well all year. The game also has the lowest over/under, at 42.5, on the weekend. In games like this, close spread, low total, playoffs,, I usually lean to who I think has the better head coach and quarterback combination. To me that is Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. Additionally, when you look at EPA on the offensive side of the ball the last four weeks, the Chargers are 5th in the NFL. The Texans? 26th. I think the Chargers win this one comfortably and move on to play the Chiefs in the next round.
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Some bonus bets I like this week: Bills, Baltimore and Chargers ML parlay +143 and Commanders +3. Be sure to join Bovada to find all the NFL bets you need and enjoy a sports welcome bonus.
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