Just when we thought NFL odds were starting to become predictable, Week 9 gave us a bunch of curveballs. Nine of 14 games were covered or won by underdogs last week, including the Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, and Arizona Cardinals.
Are we reaching a midseason period where injuries and coaching adjustments start to balance out the odds and records? We’ll see if Week 10 continues the trend.
View the latest NFL Odds at Bovada
Thursday Night Football
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)
- Start: November 7 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
- Spread: Broncos -8
- Moneyline: Broncos -525, Raiders +375
- Total: 41.5
The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL, but it’s still a mystery where they’ll end up by year’s end. Out of the three 7-2 teams, they have the lowest margin of victory and have the worst record against the spread at 4-4-1. For the most part, it’s been the defense that has kept them afloat and allowed second-year quarterback Bo Nix to steady his erratic play just enough to win. Last week, that was on display as they squeaked by the Houston Texans 18-15.
These struggles, along with them being in a division battle on a short week, opens the door for the struggling Raiders to make noise as an eight-point underdog. They’re coming off a 30-29 heartbreaker to Jacksonville, but QB Geno Smith had his best game all year with four touchdowns and just one interception.
Thursday Night Football has been a mystery ATS; games have gone 4-5 ATS through Week 9.
Sunday Games
Atlanta Falcons (3-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-2)
- Neutral location: Olympic Stadium Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Start: November 9 at 9:30 p.m. ET on NFLN
- Spread: Colts -5.5
- Moneyline: Colts -260, Falcons +215
- Total: 48.5
Did the Pittsburgh Steelers provide the formula for beating the dominant Colts? Indianapolis has easily been the most dominant team in football, with a margin of victory that was over 13 points going into Week 9. But Pittsburgh had a gameplan: stop running back Jonathan Taylor, build a lead, and force QB Daniel Jones into obvious passing scenarios.
The Colts held Taylor to just 45 yards and forced three interceptions and two fumbles from Jones. Atlanta could cover and even win if it could do the same. The good news is they allow the least amount of passing yards per game at 158.1. The bad news is their run defense is 10th-worst in the NFL, allowing an average of 124.4 yards per game.
Indianapolis saw its two-game ATS win streak come to an end against Pittsburgh; Atlanta just covered as five-point ‘dogs at New England.
Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
- Start: November 9 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Moneyline: Chargers -165, Steelers +140
- Total: 45
The Steelers’ season is following its usual script: struggle just enough to spark calls for Mike Tomlin’s job, then rise up to beat a contender and silence the noise. The Colts were the latest victims of that cycle, and the Chargers could be next. Los Angeles is coming off a lackluster win over Tennessee — a seven-point margin in a game where they were 10-point favorites — and saw Justin Herbert sacked six times. To make matters worse, they lost star left tackle Joe Alt for the season, while their starting right tackle also had to be helped off the field. T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush must be licking their chops.
Monday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-2)
- Start: November 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
- Spread: Eagles -1.5
- Moneyline: Packers -145, Eagles +125
- Total: 45
The drama is back. After a brief break from the Philadelphia soap opera, the Eagles return to the biggest stage of all: Monday Night Football. Expect renewed questions about A.J. Brown’s targets, Jalen Hurts’ passing, and the offensive staff’s ongoing struggle to balance the run and the pass.
The Packers, meanwhile, bring their own tension into this prime-time showdown. Their 16-13 loss to Carolina — managing just 13 points — has fans and analysts alike questioning Matt LaFleur’s offensive approach. Whispers about his job security are already growing louder, and only a Monday night win might quiet them down.
Green Bay lost to the Panthers as 13-point favorites; they’re 3-5 ATS on the season. The Eagles are 5-3 ATS.