You have Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, then you have a mess. Outside of that, the 2026 NFL Draft odds have been in flux; there are simply not enough premium players at premium positions in the first to make things definitive.
“This year’s NFL draft is very defense-heavy,” Bovada NFL odds compiler Hakeem Harris explained. “With most of the blue-chip prospects on that side of the ball. Particularly edge rushers, linebackers, and defensive backs.”
Regardless of this draft lacking sizzle, if you’ve scoured enough social media rumor mills and paid attention to the odds, chances are you know where the value is before Roger Goodell takes the stage.
We touched base with Bovada’s NFL Trading Team to discuss the odds, angles, and insider info before the draft gets underway on Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
View the latest NFL Odds at Bovada
Fernando Mendoza, The Lock at #1
If NFL insiders like Adam Schefter or Todd McShay confirming it isn’t enough, Bovada’s oddsmakers should seal the deal:
“Mendoza’s a lock for the Raiders at one; the fun doesn’t really start until pick two,” Harris said. “The lack of additional top QBs should have the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals take edge prospects Arvell Reese and David Bailey, whichever order.”
This draft was supposed to be a blessing for teams lacking a young signal-caller. But only Mendoza has a first-round grade. He ascended with a Burrow-like run, posting 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a 72% completion rate while leading the Hoosiers to a 16-0 season and a national title.
Mendoza’s been dubbed the next Matt Ryan – a quarterback known for poise, clean mechanics, and smart decision-making. The Raiders signed veteran free agent QB Kirk Cousins, but only as a mentor to potentially start Week 1 and ease his ascent.
A $1 bet on Mendoza going No. 1 nets you a half penny because top QB talent is rare, and no other QB comes close this year.
Ty Simpson, The QB2 Debate
Despite the disappointing QB grades outside of Mendoza, there is another QB who could go in the first round – Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Unlike Mendoza’s odds, where Simpson lands gives bettors plenty of juice to play with.
He’s earned a second-round grade by most media scouts. But Harris expects him to go higher than that – Bovada’s trading team listed his draft position total at 24.5.
“As usual, a QB is expected to go higher than anticipated.”
There are also odds on which team drafts him. Arizona is the current favorite, followed by the New York Jets. There are even solid odds for Simpson going in the top 10, and some life-changing value if you think a team has the guts to pick him top five.
The Non-QB Stars and Where They Land
With this draft having just one star at QB, expect more non-premium positions to go higher than expected. The trading team name dropped three players who could transcend positional value, and one who may not be able to overcome glaring blemishes on his resume.
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): “We could see the earliest drafted RB since Saquon Barkley; the Titans at four are the current favorites,” Harris said.
Love is the best offensive weapon in this draft; he just happens to play a non-premium position. However, an elite weapon for 2025’s No.1 overall pick QB Cam Ward is not a bad consolation prize.
Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State): Styles blew up the combine by smashing every linebacker relative athletic score (RAS). He could go as high as five to the New York Giants, making him the first top-five LB pick since A.J. Hawk in 2006. Even if the Giants pass, the Dallas Cowboys, who have picks 12 and 20, could move up for him.
“If Styles is still on the board at six, it would be very Jerry Jones to trade up for him,” Harris said. “We set his total at 5.5.”
Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): A safety hasn’t been drafted top five since Eric Berry in 2010. But Harris has him as the favorite to be picked by the Giants. Downs is considered a generational talent at a position that is slowly becoming a defense’s Swiss Army knife.
Reuben Bain Jr. (DE, Miami): Bain was once considered a top-three talent. But historically short arms, and a 2024 careless-driving citation that led to a death (charges were dropped), make his top 10 landing spot uncertain. The uncertainty provides value for sharp bettors. Bain’s best odds are at eight, but Harris acknowledged he could go as high as sixth. His total sits at 8.5 with the over as the current favorite.
Special NFL Draft Bets: Where to Find Your Edge
We’re not talking about the kind of edge that makes NFL GMs salivate – we’re talking about a betting edge for draft bettors.
As the draft approaches, wagers on where the top picks land tend to lose value. That’s when bettors should pivot to sharper angles, like exact draft order bets, where predicting the top three selections can lead to bigger payouts. There are also solid totals on where polarizing prospects like Ty Simpson, Rueben Bain Jr., and Carnell Tate land in the first.
Position-based props also offer strong opportunities. Bettors can target markets such as the first offensive lineman drafted – where Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa sits as the favorite – or which positions playoff teams like New England or Buffalo prioritize.
Beyond that, there are totals for each position group, or for the total number of players from Power conferences. And once Round 1 wraps, the Bovada trading team will be ready with fresh odds for subsequent rounds, keeping value alive throughout the entire weekend.
FAQ
Q: Who has the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
A: The Las Vegas Raiders hold the first overall pick and are expected to take Indiana QB, Fernando Mendoza.
Q: When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
A: Round 1 is April 23, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET. Rounds 2-3 are on April 24, and Rounds 4-7 are on April 25. The entire draft is in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Q: Who are the top 2026 NFL Draft prospects?
A: Fernando Mendoza is the top QB in the class and the presumptive No. 1 overall pick. Then you have non-QB prospects like edge David Bailey, LB/edge Arvel Reese, RB Jeremiyah Love, LB Sonny Styles, and Safety Caleb Downs, all of whom could go in the top five.
Q: How do I bet on the 2026 NFL Draft?
A: Visit Bovada’s NFL draft page for odds on picks, props, and draft order markets.
Q: What NFL Draft bets offer the most value?
A: Value is typically in prop markets like position picks, total bets (over/unders), and wagers to decide the order of the draft picks.
The 2026 draft is going to be a wild one. Join the drama and intrigue with bets at Bovada. Draft odds on every round, position, and shocking moment are ready when you are.
What is the NFL Draft?
The NFL Draft is an annual event where all 32 NFL teams select the next wave of talent from college football. Held in late April over three days and seven rounds, teams pick in reverse order of the previous season’s standings: the bad teams pick first, the best teams pick last. That makes the #1 overall pick the most valuable pick on the board or a struggling team. It’s often used on a quarterback expected to reshape a franchise.
Beyond the franchise-changing picks, the draft has become one of the most bet-on events in the NFL calendar. With NFL odds across every round, it’s not just about who gets picked; it’s about who rises, who falls, and who’s a steal or who busts.
Last Year’s Picks, 2025 Draft First Round
Last year, the top pick had intrigue but became predictable by draft night. Then things went off the rails with Cleveland at No. 2. Jacksonville traded up for corner/receiver hybrid Travis Hunter, and QB Shedeur Sanders went on a historic free fall from potential top-three pick to fifth-round backup.
Here’s how the 2025 draft first round went down:
| Pick | Team | Player | Pos. | College |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | Cam Ward | QB | Miami |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars* | Travis Hunter | CB/WR | Colorado |
| 3 | New York Giants | Abdul Carter | DE | Penn State |
| 4 | New England Patriots | Will Campbell | OT | LSU |
| 5 | Cleveland Browns* | Mason Graham | DT | Michigan |
| 6 | Las Vegas Raiders | Ashton Jeanty | RB | Boise State |
| 7 | New York Jets | Armand Membou | OT | Missouri |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Arizona |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | Kelvin Banks Jr. | OT | Texas |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | Colston Loveland | TE | Michigan |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | Mykel Williams | DE | Georgia |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | Tyler Booker | G | Alabama |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | Kenneth Grant | DT | Michigan |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | Tyler Warren | TE | Penn State |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | Jalon Walker | OLB | Georgia |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Walter Nolen | DT | Ole Miss |
| 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | Shemar Stewart | DE | Texas A&M |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | Grey Zabel | G | North Dakota State |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Ohio State |
| 20 | Denver Broncos | Jahdae Barron | CB | Texas |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Derrick Harmon | DT | Oregon |
| 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | Omarion Hampton | RB | North Carolina |
| 23 | Green Bay Packers | Matthew Golden | WR | Texas |
| 24 | Minnesota Vikings | Donovan Jackson | G | Ohio State |
| 25 | New York Giants* | Jaxson Dart | QB | Ole Miss |
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons* | James Pearce Jr. | DE | Tennessee |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Malaki Starks | S | Georgia |
| 28 | Detroit Lions | Tyleik Williams | DT | Ohio State |
| 29 | Washington Commanders | Josh Conerly Jr. | OT | Oregon |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Maxwell Hairston | CB | Kentucky |
| 31 | Philadelphia Eagles* | Jihaad Campbell | LB | Alabama |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs* | Joshua Simmons | OT | Ohio State |
* Denotes traded pick. Source: NBC Sports / Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft results.