A Chaotic NFC Race
To put into perspective how unpredictable this postseason is going to be: the No. 1 seed Bears and the No. 7 seed 49ers have the same number of wins through Week 13 (9).
Playoff Odds Still Favor the 49ers
ESPN’s Football Power Index gave the 49ers a 15 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs. ESPN’s FPI also has the 49ers rated as the team in the NFC most likely to make the playoffs.
A Path Back Into the NFC West Race
While the 49ers are still trailing the Rams and the Seahawks in the NFC West race, there’s a chance for San Francisco to realistically find themselves atop the division (and the NFC) within the next two weeks.
Current Betting Odds Tell an Uncertain Story
At Bovada, the 49ers are at +2700 to win the Super Bowl, the 12th-best odds of any team. San Francisco is at +1200 to win the NFC and +850 to earn the No. 1 overall seed. They are also long shots to win the NFC West at +515, trailing both the Seahawks and Rams.
Why the Seahawks Still Hold the Edge
I still like the Seahawks to win the NFC West and potentially be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. A lot of the advanced metrics, such as DVOA and EPA, have the Seahawks rated higher than the Rams. Seattle also gets to host the Rams later in the season for a chance to overtake them in the division and move up the playoff standings.
A Realistic Path for the 49ers to Climb
Despite this, I think there’s an outside chance for the 49ers to get to the top of the NFC West and the NFC. While the 49ers are on their bye week, the Packers will take on the Bears. Regardless of which team wins, the 49ers are guaranteed to move up from the No. 7 seed to the No. 6 seed. The Seahawks head to Atlanta, and the Rams will head to Arizona coming off the loss in Carolina.
Key Week 15 Opportunities
In Week 15, the 49ers will host the Titans, the Seahawks will host the Colts and the Rams will host the Lions. If the 49ers win and both the Seahawks and Rams lose, San Francisco will sit atop the NFC West with three games remaining.
The Final Stretch: A Brutal Finish for San Francisco
In the final three games of the season, the 49ers will have the hardest test, playing the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Seattle will face the Rams, Panthers and 49ers, while the Rams will play the Seahawks, Falcons and Cardinals.
The 49ers are likely to be underdogs in all three matchups, while the other two teams should be favored in two of their final three games.
The Stakes Could Not Be Higher
There’s a lot at stake in the next four weeks, and the 49ers could end up anywhere from the No. 1 seed in the NFC to missing the playoffs entirely. All signs point to them being a Wild-Card team—and a dangerous one—but there’s still a real chance to win the NFC West and host a home playoff game in January.
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