You can argue that the American and Sun Belt conferences being in the College Football Playoff was a waste of time, but you can’t argue that the CFP has delivered in terms of creating true competition for the National Championship. The college football regular season proved that the NIL is creating NFL-level parity, and the CFP cemented it. No. 10 Miami outmuscled national title favorite Ohio State, Indiana dominated legendary Alabama, and Ole Miss, an SEC afterthought, outgunned Georgia.
So, although you could argue that No. 1 Indiana is the current favorite to go all the way, recent history and the current college football playoff odds say otherwise. Check out our preview of the college football playoff semifinal between Miami and Ole Miss, and Oregon and Indiana.
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Thursday, January 8, 2026
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Odds: Miami -3, Ole Miss +3
Moneyline: Miami -160, Ole Miss +135
Total: 52
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium
Channel: ESPN
Trench warfare still matters. That’s what the Miami Hurricanes proved against Ohio State. They didn’t have the star quarterback, they didn’t have the star wideouts, they didn’t have a generational safety or linebacker, their blue-chip players were on the offensive and defensive lines, and they bullied the Buckeyes despite being 9.5-point underdogs.
Miami QB Carson Beck has been a game manager in the two CFP matchups; the heavy lifting has been the offensive line and run game, which has posted 328 rushing yards at 5.2 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Miami’s defensive line has wrecked the opposition, posting 12 sacks and pressuring QBs into drive-killing mistakes.
The good news for Ole Miss’ chances is that they have the QB to counter a smothering defensive front. Trinidad Chambliss’ playmaking ability came alive against Georgia. Out-dueling QB Gunner Stockton with 362 passing yards and two touchdowns. He routinely moved the pocket and got the ball out fast to deflate a Georgia D that allowed just 17.6 points per game.
In terms of performances against the spread (ATS), both teams are 9-5, with Miami the hotter team at 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Friday, January 9, 2026
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers
Odds: Indiana -3.5, Oregon +3.5
Moneyline: Indiana -180, Oregon +155
Total: 52.5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Channel: ESPN
Any doubts that Indiana was the No. 1 team in the nation were erased when they dominated No. 9 Alabama in the quarterfinals. QB Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers operated like an NFL squad from top to bottom: Three passing touchdowns with only two incompletions, 215 rushing yards with two TDs; three sacks on defense with six tackles for loss. Alabama looked deflated, scoring only three points, a season low. With Ohio State gone, they have the best odds to be the National Championship game winner.
The odds are at just -3.5, as Oregon has a star QB of its own and a defense that came alive against Texas Tech.
Against the Red Raiders in the quarterfinals, QB Dante Moore survived arguably the fastest pass rush in college football to keep the offense rolling despite a struggling ground game. Meanwhile, the defense pitched a shutout, using star defensive lineman A’Mauri Washington and edge Matayo Uiagalelei to leave Red Raiders QB Behren Morton completely lost for four quarters.
While Indiana is a balanced squad with playmakers on offense and defense, Moore should have more time to operate and feed targets Noah Whittington and Kenyon Sadiq. The question is whether the Ducks rattle Mendoza like they did Morton?
With the total at 52.5, expect a back-and-forth affair. Like Miami and Ole Miss, both Indiana and Oregon enter the semifinal at 9-5 ATS, with the Hoosiers holding the edge after three straight ATS wins.