We’ve finally reached the 2026 National Championship odds after the most insane college football season of all time. While the NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) has created insane offseasons with thousands of players in the transfer portal, it’s also balanced the playing field like the NFL.
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What we have now is Indiana – long known as a basketball-only school – playing for its first football national championship in program history, and actually favored against the spread (ATS). Miami, meanwhile, has a storied history, but hasn’t won the title since 2001.
Odds favor the Hoosiers, but Miami has shown its defensive line can upset any favorite. Here’s our preview of the College Football Playoff National Championship game between Miami and Indiana.
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (13-2) vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0)
- Start: January 19, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium In Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Spread: Indiana -8.5, Miami +8.5
- Moneyline: Indiana -340, Miami +270
- Total: 47.5
Offense
Miami: After a 2024 season in which it ran a wide-open passing offense with senior Cam Ward throwing all over the field, the Hurricanes brought in transferred QB Carson Beck from Georgia to ensure their growth continues without a hiccup. But after some disappointing regular-season losses, the Hurricanes began to shift increasingly into a gritty, trench-warfare, run-first team. Beck threw for 103 and 138 passing yards in the first two playoff rounds before having to keep up with Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss and throwing for 268 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Still, through the playoffs, Miami’s offense has been anchored by a beefy offensive line and junior running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who has averaged over 131 yards rushing per game. The offense will rest on their running game’s shoulders with the hopes receiver Malachi Toney can make big plays downfield.
Indiana: Pro. Ready. That’s the best way to describe the Hoosiers. Led by Heisman winner and future Raiders No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers efficiently move the ball at will. However, they’re more than willing to stick with the run game if they continue to earn solid down and distance, proven by their 12th-ranked average on the ground. But when their backs hit a defensive wall, Mendonza is decisive, accurate, and poised, consistently hitting wideouts Elijah Serrat and Omar Cooper Jr. for big gains. The Hoosiers average 42.6 points per game and scored less than 20 just once all year – against Ohio State.
Defense
Miami: When Miami did the unthinkable and upset Ohio State despite being 9.5-point underdogs, it was no fluke. They outmuscled the defending national champs with an overpowering pass rush and a physical secondary. It was a manhandling nobody was expecting.
The defense is led by edge Reuben Bain Jr. The future first-round pick was already seen as a top prospect in the regular season, but is truly dominating with three sacks in the CFP and pressure on seemingly every snap. He’s accompanied by senior lineman Akheem Mesidor – who has 10.5 sacks on the season – and physical corner Keionte Scott, who had a tone-setting pick-six against the Buckeyes. If the Hurricanes pull off another upset, it’ll be on the defense to harass Mendonza all evening.
Indiana: Indiana’s defense doesn’t overwhelm you with star power the way Miami’s does, but it mirrors the personality of its offense: it’s built on discipline, leverage, and patience, forcing offenses to earn every inch. The Hoosiers thrive on staying gap-sound up front and limiting explosive plays, preferring to grind opponents into long, mistake-prone drives rather than hunting splash plays at all costs. It’s the perfect complement to an offense that averages over 40 points per game, a defense that smothers you when you’re forced to play catch-up football.
Betting Info:
Miami: Despite two straight up losses to the unranked Louisville and SMU, the Hurricanes boast an impressive 10-5 ATS record. Including the CFP, they’ve gone 5-0 SU and ATS against ranked opponents, with only Florida State outside of the top 10. As for the total, their defense has been surprising oddsmakers down the stretch; four of their last six games have gone under the total.
Indiana: Indiana has the same 10-5 ATS record, including four straight ATS wins leading up to the National Championship. As for the total, with a defense built to prevent big plays rather than shut opponents out, they’re 8-7 with just 53.3% going over.
*Odds subject to change