Historically, the 4th quarter of the year is the best performing for Bitcoin. Summer is the worst performing, and we are nearing the end of summer. If you spent the warm months getting a tan at the beach, now might be a good time to start paying attention to crypto again in this 2024 Q4 crypto watch.
Even though Bitcoin price action has been a bit boring lately, one must still admire the strong price support that Bitcoin has seen, as it has traded within a predictable channel of $55K to $65K. Despite the bears getting louder, there has been no crash whatsoever, and Bitcoin is following the pattern of past cycles almost to a T.
With central banks worldwide declaring victory on inflation and announcing easing monetary policy, we are likely heading into a good period for risk-on assets (tech stocks, crypto). The presidential election in the USA is also a bullish event for crypto, as all the candidates are competing to appeal to as many demographics as possible, including crypto enthusiasts.
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Two Chains To Watch
OK, so let’s get more detailed. The two chains I am watching most closely right now are TRON ($TRX) and Binance Smart Chain ($BNB).
TRON
TRON has seen a huge resurgence as the founder of the chain, Justin Sun, has become very active on social media. The other factor here is that the memecoin hype has migrated over to TRON (for now). This is typical with memecoins, where meme traders rotate from chain to chain, each chain becoming “hot” for a few weeks or few months. I would expect this to continue throughout September at least, possibly longer. The leading memecoin on TRON has proven to be Sun Dog, at about $120M in market cap. Be careful though, because this crypto cycle has proven to have a lot more transiency than past cycles, meaning that it is very hard to predict which coins have “staying power.”
BINANCE SMART CHAIN
One thing is for sure though, in recent months, traders have much-preferred memecoins over utility coins. It will be interesting to see if the market rotates back to utility coins or if the rest of the bull run continues to be dominated by memecoins. Speaking of memecoins, Let’s talk about Binance Smart Chain (BSC). CZ, who is the founder of Binance, is slated to be released from prison at the end of September. He has openly stated that he will be returning to crypto again in an activist capacity, rather than retiring from crypto. This has fueled speculation that traders may be rotating to BSC soon, triggering the onset of a new “BSC Season.” While we haven’t seen this happen yet, I always try to anticipate the future and look at what might be coming next.
I do think a BSC season is very likely for a few reasons. First, during this crypto bull run, we haven’t seen a BSC season yet. We’ve seen Solana, Optimism, Avalanche, Blast, and more, but not BSC yet. I do think that BSC has long-term staying power and that we are due for this chain to become hot again, and CZ’s release from prison feels like a perfect time for that to happen.
The second reason BSC should remain strong is its low fees. Ironically, the whole reason that the market has rotated away from BSC in the first place to chains like Solana, has been the complaints about high gas fees on Ethereum. No one seems to acknowledge that BSC has had low fees all along.
For these reasons, BSC and TRON are my top picks for “chains to watch” in September. I’ll keep everyone posted on how this plays out, and, in my next article, I will share my top pick for BSC memecoin, Stay tuned.
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