Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are coming off of another stellar performance on Sunday, defeating the Atlanta Falcons at home by double digits. On the flip side, the DeMeco Ryans’ Texans are coming off of an ugly loss on the road in Seattle, 27-19.
These two teams will square off in Houston this week and the Texans are favored by 2.5 points at Bovada, while the over/under is set to 41.5 points. The sportsbook is expecting the Texans to win 22-20 in a close fight.
My picks: 49ers +2.5 and under 41.5 points.
View the latest NFL odds at Bovada
Injuries, injuries and more injuries
Both of these teams are banged up, with the 49ers losing their starting center Jake Brendel and premier edge rusher Bryce Huff last week, on top of the million injuries they have already suffered this season.
On the other sideline, the Texans are likely to be without wideouts Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, so they’re going to be down to some younger, unproven pass-catchers for C.J. Stroud.
Defensive, low-scoring battle on the way
While 41.5 point is a really low total for an NFL game, I think there’s a chance the under hits in this matchup. Per advanced metrics, the Texans have arguably the top defense in the NFL and they have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL, only allowing 88 points this season.
On the flip-side, the Texans’ offense has really struggled, especially starting up front with their offensive line. While the 49ers might not be able to generate pressure without blitzing due to injuries along the defensive line, I think they can hit with timely blitzes and keep the score low.
Both teams have excellent special teams and kickers, so I think both head coaches will play a little more conservatively, play the field-position game and I think a low-scoring game will ensue.
Coaching familiarity gives the 49ers a slight edge
Talent-wise, the Texans’ roster top-to-bottom might be better than the 49ers’ roster at this stage of the season. Houston’s defense is loaded on all three levels and they are an extremely well-coached unit.
While the Texans might have an advantage with the players on the field, I think the 49ers might have the schematic advantage with their play-callers on the sidelines.
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