The 49ers had a third of their 53-man roster pop up on the injury report this week and that’s been the story of their 2025 campaign. Despite all the missing talent, Kyle Shanahan’s squad has risen to the challenge each week and found different ways to come out victorious.
They have a tall order this week as they face off against the 4-1 Buccaneers as 3-point underdogs, according to Bovada. The over/under for this game is set at 47, so the oddsmakers are expecting a 25-22 win for the Buccaneers this Sunday.
Here are some of my thoughts and predictions ahead of Sunday’s showdown.
View the latest NFL odds at Bovada
Mac Jones and 49ers’ Passing Game Should Dominate
49ers’ quarterback Mac Jones had a dominant performance last Thursday, but has yet to practice in full this week, battling multiple injuries suffered from the win against the Rams.
Despite that, Kyle Shanahan said earlier in the week that he expects Jones to start on Sunday vs. Buccaneers. Another positive injury return for the 49ers will likely be Jauan Jennings, who’s officially listed as questionable, but practiced on Thursday and Friday this week.
The Buccaneers’ pass defense has been a sore spot this season, ranking #27 in success rate this season, while the 49ers’ pass offense ranks #4 in success rate. It’s a matchup of strength vs. weakness and with the 49ers getting another starting wide receiver back from injury, it should only help.
Expect the 49ers to come out throwing and throwing often to the likes of Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Christian McCaffrey and Jennings – if he plays.
49ers’ Pass Defense Should Have Its Hands Full With Emeka Egbuka
I’m not sure what they put in the water in Ohio State, because their wide receivers consistently come to the NFL and dominate and Buccaneers’ wideout Emeka Egbuka is the next in line of great pass-catchers from Columbus.
Baker Mayfield and Egbuka have been tearing up opposing defenses this season and I expect that to continue this week against the 49ers. Since the injury to Nick Bosa, the 49ers’ run defense has actually held steady, but their pass defense has fallen off of a cliff (down to #26 in efficiency).
Robert Saleh’s unit is unable to generate a pass rush and as a result, opposing quarterbacks have carved up the 49ers’ secondary.
Last week, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua were slicing and dicing the 49ers’ defense and I’m not sure there’s a schematic solution for the 49ers this week against Mayfield and Co.
Turnovers and Special Teams Will Determine The Outcome
After Thursday night, the 49ers and Buccaneers stand as the top-2 teams in the NFC and have largely had similar paths to get to this point. Both teams have been battered with injuries, played in a lot of close games and have found different ways to pull it out in the fourth quarter.
I expect both passing offenses to have success against the opposing defenses. I believe that this game will come down to turnovers and special teams.
The Buccaneers have had the edge this season in turnover differential over the 49ers – who have been unable to secure an interception yet this season. However, the 49ers boast the better special teams, ranking #20 in special teams EPA per play, while the Buccaneers rank #31 in the same statistic.
Tight games usually come down to kickers and the 49ers have the better kicker in this game, with Eddy Piñeiro not missing a single field-goal attempt with the 49ers this season.
As the 49ers sit at three-point underdogs and the Buccaneers not having won by more than three points this season, the smart play would be to take the 49ers and the points on Sunday.
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