The unthinkable has happened. Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons has been traded to the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas reportedly receives Green Bay’s first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, along with defensive tackle Kenny Clark. Green Bay received Parsons and subsequently signed him to a four-year, $188 million deal with $136 million guaranteed. He’ll be the second Packer to have at least 12 sacks in each of his first four seasons. The other player? Hall of Famer Reggie White.
The shocking trade ahead of the Cowboys–Eagles matchup on September 5 impacts Packers odds, along with Cowboys odds, Super Bowl and NFC Championship futures, Defensive Player of the Year lines, and more.
View the latest NFL odds at Bovada
Green Bay Packers Odds
- Current Odds to Win Super Bowl +1400
- Current Odds to Win NFC Championship +650
- Current Odds to Win NFC North +175
The impact Micah Parsons had on Packers’ odds was instant. He shifted Green Bay‘s odds to win the Super Bowl from approximately +2000 to +1400. The only NFC squads ahead of them are the Eagles and Detroit Lions. The odds to win the NFC Championship moved from +1100 to +650 – a 60% improvement. The odds to win the NFC North shifted from +260 to +175; they sit right behind the Lions, who are +165 favorites to win the division.
The shift is understandable. The Packers were already fifth in points against, fourth in yards against, and ranked eighth in sacks. Parsons has averaged 14.2 sacks per game since entering the league. Barring injury, he should make a strong defense elite.
As for Week 1 against the Lions, there’s no telling if Parsons starts in the September 7 home opener, but the Packers’ odds are currently -2.5 after sitting at -1.5 last week.
Sidenote: Circle your calendars for September 28. The Packers are at the Cowboys.
Micah Parsons Odds
- Current Defensive Player of the Year Odds +500
- Current Odds for Player with Most Regular Season Sacks +750
As for Parsons himself, it seems oddsmakers had high expectations regardless of his situation. Before the trade, his defensive player of the year odds sat at +600, tied with Lions end Aidan Hutchinson. The trade now makes Parsons the favorite at +500.
As for odds on the player with the most regular-season sacks, the odds actually shifted from +600 to +750. That’s probably due to defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s blitz-heavy scheme, which focuses on the entire defense getting to the quarterback rather than just the edge rushers. If Hafley decides to change his approach, there may be some added value for Parsons’ bets.
Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Current Odds to Win the Super Bowl +5500
- Current Odds to the NFC East +650
When looking at how oddsmakers handled the Cowboys trade, there may be a method to owner Jerry Jones’ madness.
During the press conference, Jones stated that this may be an example of “addition by subtraction” in the long run. “The facts are specifically, we need to stop the run,” Jones said. “And we haven’t been able to stop the run in key times for several years. When you have the kind of extraordinary pass rush that [Micah] had, then the way to mitigate that pass rush is to run at you.” He went on to say they’ll get better in the long run with a run-stopping tackle in Kenny Clark joining the team.
The Cowboys ranked 31st in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed, and 28th in rushing yards per game. Jones is not wrong in stating that they needed more than one player to fix their defensive issues. The Cowboys’ odds to win the Super Bowl have a slight bump down from +6000 to +5500 at Bovada. Odds to win the NFC East had a minuscule bump from +675. Either oddsmakers think Parsons is overrated, or they don’t believe a defensive end moves the needle when attached to a bad team.
Context for Parsons Trade
The last major trade of an elite pass rusher occurred on September 1, 2018, with Khalil Mack. Mack transferred from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Chicago Bears for a 2019 first-round pick, a 2020 first-round pick, a 2020 third-round pick, and a 2019 sixth-round pick. Chicago also received a 2020 second-round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick in the deal.
After the trade, Chicago closed the 2018 season 12-5 against the spread (ATS). Since then, however, the Bears have gone 39-57-5 ATS – the second-worst mark in the NFL. They eventually dealt Mack again in 2022, this time for a sixth-round pick. Las Vegas’ post-trade performance was worse, finishing 6-10 ATS in 2018 and going 49-50-2 ATS after that.
While it’s a great sign that Chicago immediately went on a league-leading ATS run in 2018, both teams lost in the long run.
*Odds subject to change
