After Kevin Durant went back-to-back with the Golden State Warriors in 2018, fans demanded parity in the NBA. Well, the NBA delivered.
Since 2018, there have been seven different NBA champions – three of those for the first time in NBA history. To borrow a word from NBA oddsmakers, the league has “balanced the action,” which means every free agency signing, draft pick, and trade has an impact on NBA odds, props, and futures.
With that in mind, we’re prepping you for the 2025 season by examining the recent offseason moves and analyzing their impact on NBA betting.
View the latest NBA odds at Bovada
Kevin Durant Traded to the Houston Rockets
NBA Odds affected:
- NBA Championship 2025-26
- +1800 to +700
He might be on the downside of his career, but 36-year-old Kevin Durant still gets buckets with the best of them. Oddsmakers all but confirmed this by catapulting Houston’s odds to win the 2025 NBA championship from around +1800 to +700 after the trade from Phoenix. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder are bigger favorites.
The trade for Durant, which Houston had the second-best odds of securing at +350, was a historic seven-team move on July 6, 2025, that included the acquisition of center Clint Capela from the Atlanta Hawks. The Rockets did lose some of their youth with the departure of former No. 2 pick Jalen Green, perimeter defender Dillon Brooks, and the 2025 No. 10 draft pick (who ultimately became 7-2 center Khaman Maluach) to Phoenix. However, the offense gained a scorer in Durant, who still averaged 26.6 points per game last season, and Capela upgrades Houston’s defense as an elite rebounder and rim protector.
The 2025-26 Rockets are in win-now mode, and the odds reflect that.
Denver Nuggets Trade for Cam Johnson
NBA Odds affected:
- NBA Championship 2025-26
- +1600 to +800
Nipping at the Rockets’ heels for the second-best odds to win the NBA title are the Denver Nuggets, who have made some savvy offseason moves, providing a deeper bench, better team defense, and improved playoff versatility.
The most significant move is trading away forward Michael Porter Jr. for small forward Cam Johnson. Johnson averaged 18.8 points in Brooklyn and is a consistent three-point shooter (39% career average) with strong off-ball skills and perimeter defense. His ability to cut, spot up, and relocate without the ball meshes better with Nikola Jokic, already one of the best passing centers of all time. Porter Jr., while an explosive scorer, requires touches and rhythm to get rolling, something that was disrupting Denver’s ball movement.
Overall, the move is considered an upgrade, and oddsmakers agreed by moving the odds from around +1600 to +800 after the trade.
Other notable moves include signing versatile wing defender Bruce Brown, who was with Denver during their 2023 championship run, and signing Tim Hardaway Jr., a veteran three-point shooter who provides valuable bench support. And signed center Jonas Valanciunas, who brings size, rebounds, and rest for Jokic during the regular season and playoffs.
Milwaukee Steals Center Myles Turner from Pacers
NBA Odds affected:
- NBA Championship 2025-26
- +10000 to +6600
When NBA free agency opened up, nobody expected to hear a peep from Milwaukee. They’re a small-market team that many pundits view as a “studio apartment” for power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo before he heads to the “penthouse” with the Lakers, Celtics, or Knicks. But surprise, surprise, they made a monster move by plucking center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers at the start of free agency.
Turner is an elite rim protector who can also defend small players on the perimeter, while shooting 36-38% from three-point range. At 28 years old, he’s a true center who brings high energy on both ends, and his range will create driving lanes for Antetokounmpo.
The signing shifted NBA odds to win from around +10000 to +6600 at Bovada. They could have been even better if Milwaukee hadn’t decided to cut eight-time All-Star Damian Lillard.
Bucks Wave Damian Lillard, Boston Next?
NBA Odds affected:
- Where Will Damian Lillard Play Game 1 of the 2025-26 NBA Season
- Boston Celtics – Regular Season Wins
- O/U 43.5
This one hasn’t happened yet, but rumors are starting to swirl. As we mentioned, Milwaukee recently cut Lillard; therefore, he can decide where he wants to play next. While the Orlando Magic are still the favorites to land Lillard at +175, numerous outlets report that the Boston Celtics are using Jayson Tatum to recruit “Dame Time.”
The Celtics are desperate for a free agency win after trading Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and losing key vet Al Horford. All to clear up cap space.
Sitting at +4000, the Celtics are no longer among the top 10 teams to win the 2025-26 NBA title, despite winning it all in 2023-24.
Dallas Mavericks Draft Cooper Flagg
NBA Odds affected:
- NBA Championship 2025-26
- +4500 to +2500
Conspiracy theories were flying after the Dallas Mavericks won the draft lottery despite having only a 3% chance. They traded away a once-in-a-generation player in Luka Doncic for forward Anthony Davis, a superstar in his own right, but much older and a substantial injury risk. However, despite Mavs fans calling for the head of GM Nico Harrison, he managed to fail upwards into another generational player, Cooper Flagg.
The No. 1 overall pick from Duke is 6-9 with elite scoring versatility, playmaking skills, premier athleticism, and strong defensive skills. He should make a difference on both sides of the ball and fit in perfectly with Davis and guard Kyrie Irving. The Mavs sat at around +4500 to win the title before they secured the pick; now they’re +2500 to win it all – an 80% increase. As a rookie, there is a chance Flagg doesn’t live up to his top-pick billing. But recently, the Mavs removed him from the Summer League after he dropped 31 points on San Antonio – they had seen enough.
